STRATEGIC ESTIMATE OF THE CAUCASUS REGION
Ahurastan is a young country that is not yet identified internationally, but it poses a threat to established nations such as Azerbaijan.
The country is sparsely populated as compared to its neighbors, with the Kurds making up a large percentage of the ethnic grouping.
The country is largely Islam, and its official religion is Shia Islam. A negligible percentage of the people attend other religions.
The economy of the country is pitiable as the country depends on imported oil and gas. However, the agricultural sector is growing at a faster rate.
The country has a conflict with Iran because of its separation from the mainland. This conflict has made the Ahurastan improve its military in a bid to defend its independence.
It also has a longstanding conflict with Azerbaijan over the ownership of the oil reservoirs with Ahurastan claiming that it owns part of the wells.
The country provides support to the SAPA rebels claiming that they have a stake in the leadership of Azerbaijan.
The US has a choice to make concerning the conflict in this region since it has several interests in it.
First, the US has to make an evaluation of the status of the region before deciding on a particular route to take.
The US has three choices to make, and these include the use of information, a military strike on Ahurastan and advancement of financial aid to the region (Special Intelligence 2015).
1. DISCUSSION/BACKGROUND. The Caucasus region is under several challenges including a poor economy and unending conflicts. The youngest country in the region is posing serious threats to the stability of the region, first through the conflict with Iran because of the boundaries. Secondly, the country supports opposition groups in Azerbaijan leading to instability in the country. This implies that measures have to be taken to reduce the influence of this small nation in the region. However, this is going to be a hard task for the US, as it has to consider the implications of any of its moves. The fact that the region has oil reserves becomes a tricky situation for the US as its past with Iraq still poses a threat to its real intention in the region. Moreover, Ahurastan has some might in its military and has an ally in the Soviet Union implying that any military strike will lead to a full-blown war (Special Intelligence 2015).
2. CURRENT STATUS. The US has allies in the region in Azerbaijan and Armenia meaning that any operation has a place for proper planning and support. Azerbaijan and Armenia have been receiving financial aid from the US for sometimes implying that their economies are better than other nations in the region. This also implies that their military might is improving. However, Ahurastan poses a military threat because of its partners and allies. Moreover, the country has a well-coordinated intelligence system that the US needs to be aware of before any decision is made. However, the economy of Ahurastan is in shambles implying that its military might be able to last only for a few battles (Special Intelligence 2015).
3. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. The chance of the US winning a battle in this region is very high because of the state of politics and economy in the region. However, the consequences of such action could be detrimental to its allies in the region and the US. This implies that any course of action decided upon by the US should consider all the avenues and implications. The most viable course of action is to use diplomacy to bring the countries together. Moreover, the US could use propaganda and financial aid to convince the leaders of these nations to work together.
Ahurastan. “National Intelligence Estimate.” In Notional Exercise Materials – For Educational Purposes Only. 2015.
“Special Intelligence Report 101200Mar2019.” In Scenario Reference Book 1. 2015.